Cubs Expos 8/2/1984

After winning 2 out of 3 from Phillies and Mets losing 3 in a row Cubs have slid into first place at the beginning of August, the beginning of the final third of any baseball season.  Today Cubs start a weekend series with the Expos so let’s take a look at these two teams to get an idea what the next 4 days will bring.

NL East 19840801

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR
CHN 61 44 57.1 -8.2 8.0
NYN 59 43 -47.3 41.8 -9.0
PHI 56 48 28.6 28.8 -29.0
SLN 53 53 -33.3 19.8 2.0
WAS 51 53 -59.4 49.8 11.0
PIT 46 61 -39.4 59.8 4.0

Here are the NL East standings at end of day yesterday which would be what your read in the newspaper when waiting for this game to start in the grandstands at Wrigley Field.

Expos (WAS) have terrible BAT and very good PITCH which we’ll see why as we dig down further into this team. The Montreal Expos will one day become the Washington Nationals which is why they are listed under the WAS franchise tag.

Tier Combo

WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
WAS -2 X 0.364 X -0.36 2.58 -3.12
CHN 17 X 0.636 X 4.00 -1.12 -0.85

Tiers represent how far above or below current league averages for today’s {L}ineups, (S}tarter, and {R}elief.  Lineups get matched with opposing team Starter and Relief and entered into a simulation which runs one million iterations of this game drawing from similar historical data.

Tier Combo simulation gives Cubs an almost 64% advantage today.  If Vegas lines were below 64% Cubs would be a betting opportunity.  If above Expos’ 36% they would be a betting opportunity.  The Expected Value (EV) column calculates how good of a bet it is if you assume the probability generated from TC simulation is correct.  We don’t have data for how Vegas handicapped this game.

Cubs are way ahead in win/loss column (WAA), have a maxed out tier 4.00 lineup today which is 2 complete standard deviations above current league average for team lineups.  Expos have a better starter but much worse relief.

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
+039+ 3.13 133.0 Bryn_Smith WAS 5 2.58
XXXXX -1.16 159.3 Rick_Sutcliffe CHN 5 -1.12

Sutcliffe is under water from a terrible start to this season at Cleveland.   Cubs are reaping all the benefit from his rise.  Simulation does not give out mulligans nor does it know the future.  Since we’re from the future we know Sutcliffe wins a Cy Young award this season and for good reasons.  Right now, with what we know today, Expos have a starter advantage.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
WAS 000020000 2 17 8 0
CHN 00010110 3 11 6 0

And this becomes somewhat of a pitchers duel. here.  Sutcliffe pitches 8 1/3 allowing only 2 earned runs so his numbers will go up again tomorrow. Smith pitches all 8 innings, all 3 runs earned.

WAS Lineup 198408020

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX 1.07 Tim_Raines CF 460
XXXXX -0.13 Max_Venable LF 5
+154+ 1.32 Andre_Dawson RF 368
+032+ 3.30 Gary_Carter CR 428
XXXXX -0.13 Dan_Driessen 1B 263
XXXXX 0.36 Tim_Wallach 3B 414
XXXXX -0.21 Derrell_Thomas SS 163
-026- -2.75 Doug_Flynn 2B 245
XXXXX -0.50 Bryn_Smith PR 49
TOTAL 2.33

Although WAS has an above 0 Total, this late in the season that is more than 1/2 standard deviation below league average.

CHN Lineup 198408020

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX -0.65 Henry_Cotto CF 95
+015+ 4.20 Ryne_Sandberg 2B 476
+031+ 3.36 Gary_Matthews LF 405
+006+ 4.75 Leon_Durham 1B 352
XXXXX 0.92 Keith_Moreland RF 321
+064+ 2.58 Jody_Davis CR 398
+054+ 2.77 Ron_Cey 3B 370
-020- -2.98 Larry_Bowa SS 303
XXXXX -0.50 Rick_Sutcliffe PR 27
TOTAL 14.45

This is very similar to all the other CHN lineups shown here before.

WAS START Roster 19840802

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
+039+ 3.13 Bryn_Smith 133.0 0
+018+ 3.99 Charlie_Lea 163.7 1
-007- -4.20 Steve_Rogers 96.0 2
+055+ 2.75 Dan_Schatzeder 77.3 3
XXXXX 0.00 Bill_Gullickson 135.7 4
TOTAL 5.67

Three excellent starters and one not so good.

CHN START Roster 19840802

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX -1.14 Rick_Sutcliffe 159.3 0
-090- -1.66 Dick_Ruthven 79.0 1
+125+ 1.57 Rich_Bordi 68.0 2
-042- -2.29 Dennis_Eckersley 147.4 3
XXXXX 1.05 Scott_Sanderson 81.0 4
TOTAL -2.47

For some reason Steve Trout is missing as well as Rick Reuschel.

WAS RELIEF Roster 19840802

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX 1.07 Gary_Lucas 42.3 1
+157+ 1.28 Jeff_Reardon 54.0 2
XXXXX -0.17 Bob_James 59.0 3
-007- -4.20 Steve_Rogers 96.0 4
TOTAL -2.02

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840802

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX 0.25 Lee_Smith 67.3 0
XXXXX -0.34 George_Frazier 75.0 1
XXXXX -0.23 Warren_Brusstar 42.7 2
+115+ 1.74 Tim_Stoddard 65.0 2
TOTAL 1.42

A very slightly above average relief squad based on seasonal numbers but almost 1/2 standard deviation below current league average for team relief.

That’s all for now.  Cubs take 3 out of 4 in this series and will host the Mets on August 6 which we’ll cover.

More coverage of the year 2020 season coming.  The simulator is up and running well.  Handicapping early games using 3 year historical data looks unexpectedly good.  A very rough prototype portal into all data in this model is very close to a beginning.  More to come soon.  Until then ….

Cubs Pirates 8/1/2020

It’s back to the future when the Cubs play Pirates again after beating them yesterday even after another relief meltdown. In a normal season July and August are in the wheelhouse for this data model with regards to handicapping. These 2 months are like the boring parts of an Indy 500 or golf tournament. Contestants pace themselves and there is enough data to discern the great from the good from the mediocres from the not so good from the ones bringing up the rear. This is true for team records as well as players. This model beats Vegas the most in July and August.

April and May there is a general lack of data where both teams and players are bunched together making it difficult to discern. In September expanded rosters cause teams way ahead and way behind to work the new guys and not care so much about winning. This model is still ahead of Vegas in September but not as much.

In this bizarre pandemic season we’re a little over a week into it which is like the second week of April in a normal season. We don’t even start compiling a league until after two weeks data are in the books.

By the time we can reliably rank players the season will be half over this year and 3/4 over when handicap can begin so this presents a problem. Somehow Vegas handicaps from day one and the only way that can be done is by relying on historical data.

It has been decided, rather arbitrarily, to use three year split data for players to compile league rosters and lineups and enter them into the simulator. Today we’ll cover this game as if it were a normal mid season game with a full dataset to work from.

Forget the standings for now let’s get to the handicapping.

PIT CHN 08_01_8:15_PM

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
PIT -33 0.377 0.330 87 -1.44 -1.69 -3.96
CHN 55 0.643 0.670 104 1.89 -1.63 1.40

Cubs won 55 games more than they lost in 2017.2018, and 2019.  Pittsburgh lost 33 more than they won during that period.  Vegas giving Cubs a 64.3% chance of winning today and TC Sim has them higher at 67% which translates into an Expected Value on a 100 unit bet to be 104 which isn’t enough so this game is a discard.

Cubs have a much better lineup, both Starters not so good as we’ll see below, and PIT relief is almost maxed out -4.00 in the wrong direction.  Cubs relief above average.  All of this is based on 3 year data which means Craig Kimbrel is their best reliever. 🙂

Starters

Starters WAA WinPct IP Tier
Mitch_Keller_PIT -2.92 0.226 48.0 -1.69
Tyler_Chatwood_TOT -2.75 0.462 328.1 -1.63

Mitch Keller is new to MLB and came up from minors last season and didn’t pitch so well.  He pitched very well in AAA last season however.   Normally new starters coming in mid season cause the entire game to be discarded.  At 48 IP over 3 years means Mitch Keller is close to being an unknown quantity right now.

PIT Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
XXXXX -1.55 Adam_Frazier_PIT LF-2B-RF 1414
XXXXX -1.60 Kevin_Newman_PIT SS-2B 628
+072+ 8.00 Josh_Bell_PIT 1B 1816
XXXXX 0.48 Colin_Moran_PIT BAT-3B-2B 980
XXXXX 1.76 Bryan_Reynolds_PIT LF-RF-CF 546
XXXXX 0.65 Gregory_Polanco_PIT RF-LF 1113
XXXXX -0.76 Phillip_Evans_PIT BAT 61
-121- -3.97 Jarrod_Dyson_PIT CF-LF-RF 1079
XXXXX -1.01 John_Ryan_Murphy_PIT BAT-CR 300
Total 2.00 TIER=-1.44

Josh Bell had a breakout season last year ranked #19 in MLB according to this data model.

CHN Lineup

Rank WAA Name_TeamID Pos PA
+094+ 6.97 Kris_Bryant_CHN 3B-RF-LF 1756
+040+ 11.09 Anthony_Rizzo_CHN 1B-2B 1969
+025+ 14.26 Javier_Baez_CHN 2B-SS-3B 1714
+149+ 5.00 Kyle_Schwarber_CHN LF 1606
XXXXX 2.90 Willson_Contreras_CHN CR 1381
XXXXX 1.66 Jason_Heyward_CHN RF-CF 1559
XXXXX 1.03 Nico_Hoerner_CHN SS 82
+150+ 4.98 Ian_Happ_CHN CF-2B-LF-RF-3B 1031
XXXXX -1.43 Victor_Caratini_CHN CR-1B 545
Total 46.46 TIER=1.89

Cubs still have a lot of good players which is why they’re hitting so well this season so far.  Rank is for all MLB players who made an appearance any time during last 3 seasons.  Cubs have 5 players ranked, 3 in the top 100 in this lineup which is very good.  Tier 1.89 means they’re almost a complete standard deviation above league average for lineups as of today.   Perhaps in a future post we’ll cover top MLB lineups.

That is all for now.  The 1984 Cubs start a new series with the Expos tomorrow.  Until then ….

Cubs Phillies Matchup 7/30/1984

Today the Cubs start a 3 game series with the Phillies in Chicago after taking 3 out of 4 from Mets in New York over the weekend. Let’s look at this matchup on this day.

NL East 19840729

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR  
NYN 59 40 -41.5 49.5 -8.9
CHN 59 43 59.8 -12.5 8.1
PHI 55 46 32.8 26.5 -29.9
WAS 50 51 -53.7 48.5 10.1
SLN 50 53 -40.5 14.5 1.1
PIT 44 60 -37.7 54.5 3.1

Phillies 3 1/2 games behind Cubs ( 7 WAA ) so this series is important for them.  Cubs gaining on the Mets so they need to keep winning too.  BAT, PITCH, and UR all about the same as the last time these two teams played a week ago. 

Tier Combo

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
PHI 9 X 0.428 X 2.21 -2.56 2.13  
CHN 16 X 0.572 X 4.00 -2.76 0.79  

Tier Combo simulation giving Cubs a 57.2 % chance of winning today.  Both starters are equally under water so this game could be considered whatever they call the opposite of a pitching duel.  Both lineups well above current league average for lineups with Cubs once again maxed out, top of MLB.

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
-038- -2.48 115.3 Charles_Hudson PHI 5 -2.56
-025- -2.69 140.3 Dennis_Eckersley CHN 5 -2.76

Dennis Eckersley starts a tremendous run with this game.  In the next two months he will add +4 WAA which is a top of MLB rate.  Unfortunately like golf, this data model does not grant mulligans.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
PHI 100000010 2 16 10 0
CHN 10000110 3 11 8 1

Eckersley gives up 1 run in 7 innings and Cubs’ relief gives up the other run.  Cubs tier 4.00 lineup only scores 3 runs which is below average but enough to win this game which is all that matters in baseball.

PHI Lineup 198407300

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
+126+ 1.55 Juan_Samuel 2B 465
+148+ 1.32 Von_Hayes CF 344
+013+ 4.24 Mike_Schmidt 3B 415
+135+ 1.43 Sixto_Lezcano RF 213
+154+ 1.28 Len_Matuszek 1B 191
+086+ 2.08 Ozzie_Virgil CR 315
XXXXX -0.94 Glenn_Wilson LF 291
-071- -1.85 Ivan_DeJesus SS 354
XXXXX -0.32 Charles_Hudson PR 42
TOTAL 8.79

CHN Lineup 198407300

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX -0.53 Henry_Cotto CF 80
+016+ 4.16 Ryne_Sandberg 2B 462
+026+ 3.51 Gary_Matthews LF 393
+003+ 4.85 Leon_Durham 1B 342
XXXXX 0.92 Keith_Moreland RF 311
+053+ 2.65 Jody_Davis CR 384
+064+ 2.52 Ron_Cey 3B 357
-023- -2.73 Larry_Bowa SS 291
XXXXX -0.44 Dennis_Eckersley PR 29
TOTAL 14.91

Sandberg and Durham rising in the ranks.  Durham must have had a very productive series with the Mets as he is now ranked #3 in MLB.

PHI START Roster 19840730

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
-038- -2.48 Charles_Hudson 115.3 0
+038+ 3.19 Jerry_Koosman 144.0 1
-037- -2.49 Shane_Rawley 79.0 2
+066+ 2.39 Steve_Carlton 156.3 3
XXXXX -0.65 Kevin_Gross 90.7 9
TOTAL -0.04

Two very good starters and two very bad starters.  Phillies must have been on a 4 pitcher rotation.  Kevin Gross pitched in relief today and will fall off this list tomorrow.

CHN START Roster 19840730

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
-025- -2.67 Dennis_Eckersley 140.4 0
XXXXX 1.07 Scott_Sanderson 81.0 1
+150+ 1.30 Steve_Trout 121.7 1
XXXXX -1.14 Rick_Sutcliffe 159.3 2
-094- -1.60 Dick_Ruthven 72.3 3
TOTAL -3.04

Cubs starting rotation getting better which is hard to see from a static snapshot like this.

PHI RELIEF Roster 19840730

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX -0.65 Kevin_Gross 90.7 0
+046+ 2.96 Larry_Andersen 57.7 1
+080+ 2.14 Al_Holland 74.7 2
XXXXX -0.17 Don_Carman 5.3 5
XXXXX 0.53 Bill_Campbell 61.0 5
TOTAL 4.81

This is a Tier 2+ relief squad or a little more than one standard deviation above current league average for team relief.

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840730

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
XXXXX 0.10 Lee_Smith 65.3 0
+092+ 1.99 Tim_Stoddard 63.0 0
XXXXX -0.59 George_Frazier 72.3 2
XXXXX 1.01 Rich_Bordi 59.0 5
TOTAL 2.51

Reuschel must be hurt because he disappeared from both relief and start rosters.  With Reuschel gone Cubs relief rises to above average.

Cubs lose tomorrow and win the next day taking 2 out of 3 from Phillies. Mets lose 3 in a row and by the start of the next series with Expos Cubs will be first in NL East by a very slim margin.  A 4 game series with Expo starts Thursday August 2 which we’ll cover with another matchup post.  Until then ….

Cubs barely survive a bullpen meltdown, but they have a Craig Kimbrel problem

That’s a disaster appearance in every sense of the term, and unfortunately for the Cubs it’s roughly in keeping with Kimbrel’s recent history. At his peak, he was on the short list of the most dominant closers in baseball history, but that peak is fading deeper and deeper into the past. Kimbrel showed signs of eroding command during the 2018 season for the Red Sox, even though he wound up with strong numbers overall.

Source: Cubs barely survive a bullpen meltdown, but they have a Craig Kimbrel problem – CBSSports.com

It appears Craig Kimbrel is under a microscope again after yesterday when  he “earned” himself a Hold stat by giving up 2 runs and 4 walks.  Cubs signed him last season because their relief staff needed help and they were very much contenders for NL Central in June.

This article makes some broad declarations so let’s look at Craig Kimbrel.  Here’s his career according to this data model.

Craig Kimbrel

Year Rank WAA TeamID Pos
2010 +189+ 1.76 ATL PITCH
2011 +082+ 3.17 ATL PITCH
2012 +039+ 4.41 ATL PITCH
2013 +042+ 4.18 ATL PITCH
2014 +087+ 3.07 ATL PITCH
2015 +165+ 1.93 SDN PITCH
2016 XXXXX 0.99 BOS PITCH
2017 +041+ 4.49 BOS PITCH
2018 +163+ 1.99 BOS PITCH
2019 XXXXX -0.97 CHN PITCH

An excellent career with 5 years in top 100 and only not ranked twice over his 10 years in the league.   Last season was his first below average year after missing the first two months according to this data model.   Cubs acquired Kimbrel to help relief staff instead he dragged it down further.

Craig Kimbrel WAR

Year Rank WAR TeamID Pos
2010 XXXXX 0.7 ATL PITCH
2011 +173+ 2.4 ATL PITCH
2012 +099+ 3.3 ATL PITCH
2013 +110+ 3.3 ATL PITCH
2014 +157+ 2.5 ATL PITCH
2015 XXXXX 1.2 SDN PITCH
2016 XXXXX 0.9 BOS PITCH
2017 +082+ 3.6 BOS PITCH
2018 +180+ 2.3 BOS PITCH
2019 -140- -0.5 CHN PITCH
TOTAL X 19.7

As has been shown here many times WAR under values relief and here’s another example.  Kimbrel barely makes top 100 in 2012 and 2017 and out of the top 200 4 times according to WAR.  Both WAR and this data model generally agree on his career trajectory and his values for the year 2017 and 2018.

In 2012, one of Kimbrel’s career years helping Atlanta win 94 games WAR ranks him #99.  Darwin Barney in 2012, playing 2B for the Cubs that won only 61 games, ranked #34 in MLB by WAR.  Was Darwin Barney better than Kimbrel that year?

Player acquisition is always a gamble, sometimes more sometimes less.  Cubs needed help in relief, Kimbrel was available, and they took a chance.  It didn’t work out and Cubs didn’t make the playoffs.  Had it worked out Cubs may have just barely made the playoffs but would most likely lose in the first round.  It takes a team effort to win and a team effort to lose.

Modeling player contracts requires very complex financial math and risk analysis far outside the scope of this data model.  If this season continues on, and there doesn’t seem to be any drama today on the Twitter, then we’ll be able to have a better look see into Cubs relief situation for next year.  This is just one bad outing for Kimbrel in a very unusual season.  Tomorrow is another day.

Vegas has Cubs almost even steven with Reds for today’s game.  Not sure why.  More on this later.  Until then ….

Cubs Mets Matchup 7/27/1984

Today is Friday July 27, 1984 and Cubs, after taking 2 out of 3 from the Phillies, travel to New York for a 4 game series which culminates in a scheduled double header on Sunday.  Let’s look at these two teams.

Below are NL East standings as of end of day yesterday 7/26.

NL East 19840726

Tm W L BAT PITCH UR  
NYN 58 37 -37.4 54.6 -5.1
CHN 56 42 51.0 -16.4 7.9
PHI 54 44 35.5 29.6 -30.1
WAS 48 50 -57.0 46.6 8.9
SLN 47 53 -41.9 10.6 -0.1
PIT 44 57 -33.0 55.6 2.9

Cubs 3 1/2 games behind Mets who suffer from bad hitting but very good PITCH.  Cubs are the opposite but their PITCH is less bad than Mets’ BAT. Seasonal run differential can be deceptive late in a season as teams contending for playoffs make acquisitions to fix problems they know they have.  

Tier Combo

  WAA Vegas TC Sim EV L S R
CHN 14 X 0.446 X 4.00 -1.83 -0.74  
NYN 21 X 0.554 X -1.12 2.49 3.44  

The WAA column is simply team wins minus team losses defined in this data model as WAA’; the same value used for players.  Mets are 7 WAA ahead of Cubs.  Divide that by 2 and you get 3 1/2 which is number of games they are ahead in first place.  Not too complicated.

L, S, and R columns are tier numbers representing team Lineups, Starters, and Relief squads for today’s game.  Cubs starting a massive maxed out tier 4.00 lineup which is more than 2 standard deviations above league average for lineups as of beginning of today.

Mets starting a much better pitcher than Cubs and have much better relief. 

Starters

Rank WAA IP Name TeamId Rest Tier
-082- -1.64 66.0 Dick_Ruthven CHN 6 -1.83
+043+ 2.96 127.0 Dwight_Gooden NYN 7 2.49

Every 2 tier numbers is one complete standard deviation above league average for the complete set of MLB starters.  Gooden is more than that today.  Ruthven is almost a complete standard deviation below current league average. 

Pitchers however face opposing lineups, not opposing pitchers — except when they’re batting in a lineup.  Gooden must deal with a lineup better than him.  Ruthven faces a much weaker lineup, yet that lineup is still better.  Let’s see what happens.

Line Scores

TeamID Linescore R TB H E
CHN 100000000 1 7 4 0
NYN 10000010 2 8 8 0

This is commonly known as a pitchers duel.  Each superior lineup had trouble scoring against the pitcher they faced.

Gooden pitches 8 giving up one run, Jesse Orosco in for the save in the ninth.  Ruthven gives up 2 in 6 1/3 and Tim Stoddard finishes the game for Cubs.  

CHN Lineup 198407270

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX 0.73 Bob_Dernier CF 395
+020+ 3.59 Ryne_Sandberg 2B 445
+030+ 3.25 Gary_Matthews LF 381
+012+ 4.30 Leon_Durham 1B 325
XXXXX 0.90 Keith_Moreland RF 294
+063+ 2.39 Jody_Davis CR 368
+073+ 2.27 Ron_Cey 3B 345
-022- -2.71 Larry_Bowa SS 282
XXXXX -0.27 Dick_Ruthven PR 26
TOTAL 14.45

Leon Durham back in the clean up spot but it didn’t matter much today. This lineup scores 11 runs tomorrow however.

NYN Lineup 198407270

Rank WAA Name Pos PA
XXXXX -1.18 Wally_Backman 2B 319
XXXXX -0.65 Mookie_Wilson CF 372
+130+ 1.43 Keith_Hernandez 1B 395
+074+ 2.25 Darryl_Strawberry RF 374
XXXXX 1.11 George_Foster LF 360
XXXXX -0.36 Hubie_Brooks 3B 364
-110- -1.36 Mike_Fitzgerald CR 221
XXXXX -0.29 Rafael_Santana SS 30
XXXXX -0.71 Dwight_Gooden PR 48
TOTAL 0.24

At 0.24 total WAA this is an almost completely even steven lineup based upon seasonal numbers.  As a season progresses the league average for lineups goes up as teams replace negative value players with new guys, thus making this lineup below average with a tier number of -1.12, a little over 1/2 standard deviation below current league average for lineups.  This concurs with Mets’ negative BAT in team status above.

CHN START Roster 19840727

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
-082- -1.64 Dick_Ruthven 66.0 0
-032- -2.52 Dennis_Eckersley 140.4 2
XXXXX 0.69 Scott_Sanderson 73.3 3
XXXXX -1.20 Rick_Sutcliffe 153.0 4
XXXXX 0.65 Steve_Trout 112.7 5
TOTAL -4.02

These are the current set of starters for Cubs.  Sutcliffe still climbing out of the hole he dug the first couple of months with Cleveland.  He pitched well against Phillies.  Eckersley is also starting to rise which you can’t see from this static snapshot.  Since we’re from the future we know what happens these next few months which will unfold more with each of these matchup reports.

NYN START Roster 19840727

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
+043+ 2.96 Dwight_Gooden 127.0 0
XXXXX 0.42 Sid_Fernandes 18.3 2
-046- -2.20 Bruce_Berenyi 101.0 3
+088+ 2.04 Walt_Terrell 128.3 4
+093+ 1.95 Ron_Darling 127.3 5
TOTAL 5.17

Mets have 3 solid starters which compensates for their under water lineups.

CHN RELIEF Roster 19840727

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
+094+ 1.93 Tim_Stoddard 61.3 0
XXXXX 1.09 Rich_Bordi 59.0 2
XXXXX 0.13 Lee_Smith 62.3 4
-016- -2.94 Rick_Reuschel 77.3 5
XXXXX -0.63 George_Frazier 71.3 5
XXXXX -0.23 Warren_Brusstar 42.0 5
TOTAL -0.65

Reuschel dragged this relief squad into negative territory.  He’s on 5 day rest so Frey may make him a starter again soon.

NYN RELIEF Roster 19840727

Rank WAA Name IP Rest
+051+ 2.62 Jesse_Orosco 56.3 0
XXXXX 0.32 Ed_Lynch 86.3 2
+150+ 1.28 Brent_Gaff 34.7 3
+019+ 3.76 Doug_Sisk 64.3 3
XXXXX 0.25 Tom_Gorman 35.0 3
TOTAL 8.23

This is a very good near top of MLB set of relievers which also concurs with Mets’ excellent PITCH in team status above.

That is all for now.  Cubs lose today but since we’re from the future we know they take the next 3 against the Mets sweeping the Sunday double header only allowing Mets 1 run in both games.  This series will bring the Cubs within 1 1/2 games ( 3 WAA ) of first place in NL East.  

Phillies come to Chicago on Monday 7/30 which we’ll cover next with another look at this matchup.  Until then ….

Update from the year 2020:

On this day in the year 2020 Cubs travel to Cincinnati to start a 4 game series.  Normally Aprils are when we fix broken scripts and get all the data moving smoothly again for ranking and handicapping in May.  

We have complete opening rosters for Cubs and all teams and ready to run a playoff horse race.   Vegas lines are also coming in even though they changed their API very slightly for the first time in 5 years of doing this.  It wasn’t much of a change so the data is coming in and everything seems to be working again.

Cubs are slight favorites at 52.6%, Reds at 49.8% tonight according to Vegas. Still tweaking the simulator to take 3 year split data.  I was going to rush to get all of this online but it appears the entire MLB season could be in jeopardy only 4 days into this shortened season.  This means there may be no reason to rush.

If things settle down perhaps a current season matchup post will happen when Cubs play Pirates on 7/31.

So we’ll see.  In the meantime, since we are from the future, we know the 1984 season finishes to completion and well into October without any controversy except  for that one team that loses home field advantage in the playoffs because they can’t play night games at home.

End of Update