Baseball Handbook beta

MIN CIN 2023-09-18 17:40 CST

Line Score

Click on a TeamID to bring up team status, a Line Score to access box score for that team

Tm	Line Score	R	TB	H	E
MIN	000 100 101	3	12	5	0
CIN	020 200 30	7	13	9	1

Starters

Tm	WAA	2Yr	Name	IP	Tier
MIN	0.35	0.00	Joe Ryan (R)	145.7	-0.01
CIN	-0.80	0.00	Connor Phillips (R)	8.7	-0.22

Vegas Lines

Tm	Open	Current	Line	Range	TC Sim
MIN	0.588	0.600	-150	0.592 - 0.623	NA
CIN	0.433	0.435	130	0.426 - 0.455	NA

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

Lineups		Pitchers		TC
MIN0		Connor Phillips
	-	-0.22	=	0
		Relief CIN
	-	0.8	=	-1
CIN0		Joe Ryan
	-	-0.01	=	0
		Relief MIN
	-	0.19	=	0

Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR	dPE
MIN	79	71	17.0	58.3	14.7	-10.9	ALDS
CIN	78	73	3.7	-48.8	5.1	13.4

Vegas Status

Tm	W	L	For	Against	#Bets
MIN	79	71	-5.3%	-0.1%	150
CIN	78	73	10.6%	-15.1%	150

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games and displayed. EVs greater than 108 are not displayed because they go through another layer of scrutiny. NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate.

Time	Tm	Vegas	Neutral	HAP	HAWAA	Expected Values
17:40 details	MIN	0.600	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
	CIN	0.441	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

Horse Race Record

Tm	W-L	Total	Hitters	Starters	Relief	dPE
MIN	8	15.4	0.6	8.2	6.6	-10.9
CIN	5	10.7	2.4	-1.0	9.3	13.4

Away/Home Field Advantage

	Tm	tWAA	WAA	tPE	PE	UR
AWAY	MIN	0.11	0	0.64	0.4	1.94
HOME	CIN	0.04	-0.18	-0.07	-0.42	0.43