Baseball Handbook beta

SDN MIL 2024-04-16 18:40 CST

Line Score

Click on a TeamID to bring up team status, a Line Score to access box score for that team

Tm	Line Score	R	TB	H	E
SDN	400 000 200	6	13	10	1
MIL	100 000 101	3	7	6	3

Starters

Tm	WAA	2Yr	Name	IP	Tier
SDN	0.75	2.53	Dylan Cease (R)	16.7	2.09
MIL	0.18	1.98	Wade Miley (L)	4.0	0.77

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

Tm	Open	Current	Line	Win	Range	TC Sim
SDN	0.535	0.537	-116	86	0.535 - 0.545	X
MIL	0.512	0.502	-101	99	0.500 - 0.512	X

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

Lineups		Pitchers		TC
SDN0.01		Wade Miley
	-	0.77	=	-1
		Relief MIL
	-	0	=	0
MIL0.08		Dylan Cease
	-	2.09	=	-2
		Relief SDN
	-	0.64	=	-1

Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR	dPE
SDN	11	9	14.1	-0.9	-1.2	-0.5
MIL	10	6	19.1	8.1	-3.2	-1.0

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

Tm	W	L	For	Against	#Bets
SDN	X	X	8.1%	-13.1%	18
MIL	X	X	24.7%	-30.5%	16

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games and displayed. EVs greater than 108 are not displayed because they go through another layer of scrutiny. NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate.

Time	Tm	Vegas	Neutral	HAP	HAWAA	Expected Values
18:40 details	SDN	0.537	X	X	X	X	X	X
	MIL	0.502	X	X	X	X	X	X

Away/Home Field Advantage

	Tm	tWAA	WAA	tPE	PE	UR
AWAY	SDN	0.05	0.41	1.3	-0.19	0.04
HOME	MIL	1.13	-0.01	0.02	-0.18	0.66