Baseball Handbook beta

PHI CIN 2024-04-24 17:40 CST

Line Score

Click on a TeamID to bring up team status, a Line Score to access box score for that team

Tm	Line Score	R	TB	H	E
PHI	101 001 100	4	14	11	1
CIN	001 004 11	7	15	10	1

Starters

Tm	WAA	2Yr	Name	IP	Tier
PHI	1.38	-1.06	Spencer Turnbull (R)	22.0	-0.01
CIN	0.90	-0.38	Nick Lodolo (L)	12.0	0

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

Tm	Open	Current	Line	Win	Range	TC Sim
PHI	0.442	0.450	122	122	0.435 - 0.465	X
CIN	0.598	0.588	-143	70	0.583 - 0.608	X

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

Lineups		Pitchers		TC
PHI0.22		Nick Lodolo
	-	0	=	0
		Relief CIN
	-	1.32	=	-1
CIN0		Spencer Turnbull
	-	-0.01	=	0
		Relief PHI
	-	-0.05	=	0

Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR	dPE
PHI	15	10	-1.1	3.5	5.6	3.3
CIN	14	10	22.1	5.3	-3.3	-1.1

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

Tm	W	L	For	Against	#Bets
PHI	15	10	-2.6%	-14.3%	25
CIN	13	11	7.8%	-18.8%	24

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games and displayed. EVs greater than 108 are not displayed because they go through another layer of scrutiny. NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate.

Time	Tm	Vegas	Neutral	HAP	HAWAA	Expected Values
17:40 details	PHI	0.450	X	X	X	X	X	X
	CIN	0.588	X	X	X	X	X	X

Away/Home Field Advantage

	Tm	tWAA	WAA	tPE	PE	UR
AWAY	PHI	0.84	-0.1	-0.01	-1.04	0.74
HOME	CIN	0.21	-0.1	0	0.02	0