Choose a Day

LAN ARI 2024-05-01 20:40 CST

Line Score

Click on a TeamID to bring up team status, a Line Score to access box score for that team

TmLine ScoreRTBHE
LAN051 000 200818100
ARI000 000 0000870

Starters

TmWAA2YrNameIPTier
LAN0.280.00Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R) 28.0-0.02
ARI0.383.32Jordan Montgomery (L) 13.02.12

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

TmOpenCurrentLineWinRangeTC Sim
LAN0.5740.574-135740.573 - 0.587X
ARI0.4650.4631161160.455 - 0.467X

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

LineupsPitchersTC
LAN2.07Jordan Montgomery
-2.12=0
Relief ARI
--0.16=2
ARI0.27Yoshinobu Yamamoto
--0.02=0
Relief LAN
--0.05=0

Team Status

TmWLBATPITCHURdPE
LAN201337.510.31.2-3.3
ARI141826.8-10.11.4-7.8

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

TmWLForAgainst#Bets
LAN2112-3.8%-1.0%31
ARI1616-19.9%6.3%32

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games and displayed. EVs greater than 108 are not displayed because they go through another layer of scrutiny. NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate.

TimeTmVegasNeutralHAPHAWAAExpected Values
20:40

details
LAN0.574XXXXXX
ARI0.463XXXXXX

Away/Home Field Advantage

TmtWAAWAAtPEPEUR
AWAYLAN0.660.765.190.161.31
HOMEARI-0.170.090.181.280.27

_

Home Baseball Handbook FooterMastodon