Baseball Handbook beta

SDN ARI 2024-05-05 15:10 CST

Line Score

Click on a TeamID to bring up team status, a Line Score to access box score for that team

Tm	Line Score	R	TB	H	E
SDN	031 000 000	4	17	12	1
ARI	420 410 00	11	22	13	0

Starters

Tm	WAA	2Yr	Name	IP	Tier
SDN	-0.30	-0.01	Matt Waldron (R)	31.0	-0.16
ARI	-0.24	-1.01	Ryne Nelson (R)	15.7	-0.74

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

Tm	Open	Current	Line	Win	Range	TC Sim
SDN	0.528	0.522	-109	92	0.524 - 0.535	X
ARI	0.510	0.519	-108	93	0.510 - 0.524	X

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

Lineups		Pitchers		TC
SDN0.04		Ryne Nelson
	-	-0.74	=	1
		Relief ARI
	-	-0.4	=	0
ARI0.01		Matt Waldron
	-	-0.16	=	0
		Relief SDN
	-	0.53	=	-1

Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR	dPE
SDN	18	19	30.0	-20.0	1.0	-3.3
ARI	15	20	26.4	-19.9	0.5	-6.5

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

Tm	W	L	For	Against	#Bets
SDN	19	18	-9.3%	2.1%	35
ARI	17	18	-21.3%	8.4%	35

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games and displayed. EVs greater than 108 are not displayed because they go through another layer of scrutiny. NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate.

Time	Tm	Vegas	Neutral	HAP	HAWAA	Expected Values
15:10 details	SDN	0.522	X	X	X	X	X	X
	ARI	0.519	X	X	X	X	X	X

Away/Home Field Advantage

	Tm	tWAA	WAA	tPE	PE	UR
AWAY	SDN	0	0.79	0.64	0.04	0.28
HOME	ARI	-0.55	-0.04	-0.04	0.16	0.04