Baseball Handbook beta

NYN SLN 2024-05-07 18:45 CST

Line Score

Click on a TeamID to bring up team status, a Line Score to access box score for that team

Tm	Line Score	R	TB	H	E
NYN	000 060 001	7	22	14	0
SLN	300 001 001	5	21	11	1

Starters

Tm	WAA	2Yr	Name	IP	Tier
NYN	0.87	0.15	Jose Butto (R)	28.0	0.04
SLN	-1.55	0.53	Miles Mikolas (R)	38.0	-0.6

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

Tm	Open	Current	Line	Win	Range	TC Sim
NYN	0.488	0.488	105	105	0.476 - 0.488	0.490
SLN	0.556	0.552	-123	81	0.556 - 0.565	0.510

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

Lineups		Pitchers		TC
NYN0.44		Miles Mikolas
	-	-0.6	=	1
		Relief SLN
	-	0.78	=	0
SLN0		Jose Butto
	-	0.04	=	0
		Relief NYN
	-	-0.2	=	0

Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR	dPE
NYN	18	18	-9.1	12.4	1.7	-1.1
SLN	15	21	-31.3	-2.1	-1.6	1.3

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

Tm	W	L	For	Against	#Bets
NYN	18	18	1.7%	-3.9%	36
SLN	18	18	-20.0%	13.6%	36

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games and displayed. EVs greater than 108 are not displayed because they go through another layer of scrutiny. NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate.

Time	Tm	Vegas	Neutral	HAP	HAWAA	Expected Values
18:45 details	NYN	0.488	0.520	0.490	0.537	106.6	100.5	110.1
	SLN	0.552	0.480	0.510	0.463	86.9	92.3	83.8

Away/Home Field Advantage

	Tm	tWAA	WAA	tPE	PE	UR
AWAY	NYN	-0.01	0	0.07	0.02	1.44
HOME	SLN	-0.34	-1.57	-0.72	-3.27	-0.03