Choose a Day

SLN MIL 2024-05-09 18:40 CST

Line Score

Click on a TeamID to bring up team status, a Line Score to access box score for that team

TmLine ScoreRTBHE
SLN001 000 00011060
MIL310 110 10721101

Starters

TmWAA2YrNameIPTier
SLN2.183.73Sonny Gray (R) 30.36.38
MIL-0.680.00Tobias Myers (R) 13.0-0.34

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

TmOpenCurrentLineWinRangeTC Sim
SLN0.5830.576-136740.574 - 0.585NA
MIL0.4550.4611171170.455 - 0.467NA

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

LineupsPitchersTC
SLN-0.35Tobias Myers
--0.34=0
Relief MIL
-0.05=0
MIL0.22Sonny Gray
-6.38=-4
Relief SLN
-0.81=-1

Team Status

TmWLBATPITCHURdPE
SLN1522-39.3-0.9-0.81.6
MIL221517.77.10.21.8

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

TmWLForAgainst#Bets
SLN1918-22.2%16.4%37
MIL181918.1%-24.6%37

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games and displayed. EVs greater than 108 are not displayed because they go through another layer of scrutiny. NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate.

TimeTmVegasNeutralHAPHAWAAExpected Values
18:40

details
SLN0.576NANANANANANA
MIL0.461NANANANANANA

Away/Home Field Advantage

TmtWAAWAAtPEPEUR
AWAYSLN-0.430.4-0.990.21-0.04
HOMEMIL0.43-0.040.07-0.950.67

_

Home Baseball Handbook FooterMastodon