Baseball Handbook beta

ARI BAL 2024-05-10 18:05 CST

Line Score

Click on a TeamID to bring up team status, a Line Score to access box score for that team

Tm	Line Score	R	TB	H	E
ARI	001 001 000	2	11	7	0
BAL	020 010 10	4	9	7	0

Starters

Tm	WAA	2Yr	Name	IP	Tier
ARI	-0.61	-1.34	Brandon Pfaadt (R)	41.0	-1.45
BAL	0.85	-0.09	Cole Irvin (L)	34.7	0.01

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

Tm	Open	Current	Line	Win	Range	TC Sim
ARI	0.465	0.476	110	110	0.465 - 0.476	0.408
BAL	0.574	0.565	-130	77	0.565 - 0.574	0.592

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

Lineups		Pitchers		TC
ARI0.28		Cole Irvin
	-	0.01	=	0
		Relief BAL
	-	1.18	=	-1
BAL0.97		Brandon Pfaadt
	-	-1.45	=	2
		Relief ARI
	-	0	=	1

Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR	dPE
ARI	18	21	26.6	-17.5	1.9	-5.3
BAL	25	12	34.1	14.5	6.4	1.5

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

Tm	W	L	For	Against	#Bets
ARI	19	20	-14.2%	1.8%	39
BAL	20	17	20.2%	-23.9%	37

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games and displayed. EVs greater than 108 are not displayed because they go through another layer of scrutiny. NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate.

Time	Tm	Vegas	Neutral	HAP	HAWAA	Expected Values
18:05 details	ARI	0.476	0.441	0.408	0.390	92.6	85.7	81.9
	BAL	0.565	0.559	0.592	0.610	98.9	104.8	108.0

Away/Home Field Advantage

	Tm	tWAA	WAA	tPE	PE	UR
AWAY	ARI	-0.05	-0.04	0	-0.05	0
HOME	BAL	1.76	2.54	2.83	1.61	0.67