Baseball Handbook beta

ATL NYN 2024-05-12 18:10 CST

Line Score

Click on a TeamID to bring up team status, a Line Score to access box score for that team

Tm	Line Score	R	TB	H	E
ATL	010 001 010	3	9	6	0
NYN	001 001 002	4	15	10	0

Starters

Tm	WAA	2Yr	Name	IP	Tier
ATL	-0.48	1.30	Bryce Elder (R)	15.3	0.01
NYN	0.94	-0.85	Luis Severino (R)	40.0	-0.07

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

Tm	Open	Current	Line	Win	Range	TC Sim
ATL	0.524	0.519	-108	93	0.515 - 0.524	0.543
NYN	0.524	0.522	-109	92	0.524 - 0.528	0.457

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

Lineups		Pitchers		TC
ATL3.07		Luis Severino
	-	-0.07	=	3
		Relief NYN
	-	-0.02	=	3
NYN0.09		Bryce Elder
	-	0.01	=	0
		Relief ATL
	-	2.31	=	-2

Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR	dPE
ATL	24	13	12.8	27.3	5.0	1.5
NYN	19	20	-19.2	17.4	2.9	-1.2

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

Tm	W	L	For	Against	#Bets
ATL	23	14	1.5%	-20.0%	37
NYN	19	20	-1.2%	-2.7%	39

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games and displayed. EVs greater than 108 are not displayed because they go through another layer of scrutiny. NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate.

Time	Tm	Vegas	Neutral	HAP	HAWAA	Expected Values
18:10 details	ATL	0.519	0.576	0.543	0.546	111.2	104.8	105.4
	NYN	0.522	0.424	0.457	0.454	81.4	87.7	87.2

Away/Home Field Advantage

	Tm	tWAA	WAA	tPE	PE	UR
AWAY	ATL	1.68	0.06	-0.01	0.07	0.47
HOME	NYN	-0.05	-0.05	0	0.15	-1.52