Baseball Handbook beta

CHN ATL 2024-05-13 18:20 CST

Line Score

Click on a TeamID to bring up team status, a Line Score to access box score for that team

Tm	Line Score	R	TB	H	E
CHN	000 000 000	0	5	5	0
ATL	000 002 00	2	12	10	0

Starters

Tm	WAA	2Yr	Name	IP	Tier
CHN	2.80	0.00	Shota Imanaga (L)	41.7	1.17
ATL	1.99	1.45	Reynaldo Lopez (R)	35.3	1.94

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

Tm	Open	Current	Line	Win	Range	TC Sim
CHN	0.459	0.461	117	117	0.455 - 0.467	X
ATL	0.580	0.576	-136	74	0.574 - 0.592	X

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

Lineups		Pitchers		TC
CHN0.35		Reynaldo Lopez
	-	1.94	=	-2
		Relief ATL
	-	2.3	=	-2
ATL3.06		Shota Imanaga
	-	1.17	=	2
		Relief CHN
	-	0.87	=	2

Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR	dPE
CHN	24	18	12.0	10.2	-6.2	2.6
ATL	25	13	10.5	31.1	5.4	2.1

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

Tm	W	L	For	Against	#Bets
CHN	20	22	11.4%	-20.7%	42
ATL	23	15	3.4%	-22.1%	38

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games and displayed. EVs greater than 108 are not displayed because they go through another layer of scrutiny. NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate.

Time	Tm	Vegas	Neutral	HAP	HAWAA	Expected Values
18:20 details	CHN	0.461	X	X	X	X	X	X
	ATL	0.576	X	X	X	X	X	X

Horse Race Record

Tm	W-L	Total	Hitters	Starters	Relief	dPE
ATL	12	11.6	4.6	3.7	3.3	2.1
CHN	6	11.8	3.0	6.5	2.2	2.6

Away/Home Field Advantage

	Tm	total WAA	away/home WAA
AWAY	CHN	0.59	0
HOME	ATL	1.46	1