Choose a Day

MIL MIA 2024-05-20 17:40 CST

Line Score

Click on a TeamID to bring up team status, a Line Score to access box score for that team

TmLine ScoreRTBHE
MIL000 011 000 02940
MIA000 000 101 13771

Starters

TmWAA2YrNameIPTier
MIL-0.600.00Joe Ross (R) 41.0-0.33
MIA0.18-1.31Ryan Weathers (L) 49.7-0.68

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

TmOpenCurrentLineWinRangeTC Sim
MIL0.5920.588-143700.583 - 0.6000.502
MIA0.4500.4501221220.444 - 0.4630.498

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

LineupsPitchersTC
MIL0.48Ryan Weathers
--0.68=1
Relief MIA
--0.66=1
MIA-0.44Joe Ross
--0.33=0
Relief MIL
--0.13=0

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Team Status

TmWLBATPITCHURdPE
MIL272029.45.02.6-0.8
MIA1633-24.8-50.4-5.7-0.0

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

TmWLForAgainst#Bets
MIL232412.4%-18.5%47
MIA2128-28.0%19.4%49

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games and displayed. EVs greater than 108 are not displayed because they go through another layer of scrutiny. NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate.

TimeTmVegasNeutralHAPHAWAAExpected Values
17:40

details
MIL0.5880.5330.5020.59390.685.3100.8
MIA0.4500.4670.4980.407103.7110.690.4

Horse Race Record

TmW-LTotalHittersStartersReliefdPE
MIL710.07.60.91.4-0.8
MIA-17-7.5-1.4-5.5-0.6-0.0

Away/Home Field Advantage

Tmtotal WAAaway/home WAA
AWAYMIL0.631.12
HOMEMIA-3.21-5.37

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