Baseball Handbook beta

MIL PHI 2024-06-05 15:05 CST

Line Score

Click on a TeamID to bring up team status, a Line Score to access box score for that team

Tm	Line Score	R	TB	H	E
MIL	ALI NE	0	4	3	0
PHI	HLI NE	2	6	3	0

Starters

Tm	WAA	2Yr	Name	IP	Tier
MIL	-0.50	-0.41	Aaron Ashby (L)	3.7	-0.49
PHI	1.53	0.91	Aaron Nola (R)	77.3	0.88

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

No lines recorded for 20240605

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

Lineups		Pitchers		TC
MIL1.34		Aaron Nola
	-	0.88	=	0
		Relief PHI
	-	1.27	=	0
PHI1.75		Aaron Ashby
	-	-0.49	=	2
		Relief MIL
	-	1.04	=	1

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Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR	dPE
MIL	36	26	35.3	18.8	3.9	-2.2
PHI	44	19	49.3	53.8	0.9	3.2

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

Tm	W	L	For	Against	#Bets
MIL	31	31	13.8%	-22.0%	61
PHI	38	25	14.0%	-30.5%	62

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games and displayed. EVs greater than 108 are not displayed because they go through another layer of scrutiny. NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate.

Time	Tm	Vegas	Neutral	HAP	HAWAA	Expected Values
15:05 details	MIL	0.405	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
	PHI	0.635	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

Horse Race Record

Tm	W-L	Total	Hitters	Starters	Relief	dPE
PHI	25	23.2	8.5	9.8	4.9	3.2
MIL	10	18.4	9.9	2.6	5.9	-2.2

Away/Home Field Advantage

	Tm	total WAA	away/home WAA
AWAY	MIL	0.75	0.38
HOME	PHI	3.56	4.41