Choose a Day

MIL LAN 2024-07-06 18:15 CST

Line Score

Click on a TeamID to bring up team status, a Line Score to access box score for that team

TmLine ScoreRTBHE
MIL100 100 01031252
LAN300 000 0252090

Starters

TmWAA2YrNameIPTier
MIL0.490.43Freddy Peralta (R) 94.00.03
LAN-0.51-0.06James Paxton (L) 75.7-0.29

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

TmOpenCurrentLineWinRangeTC Sim
MIL0.5100.512-105950.485 - 0.524X
LAN0.5280.528-112890.524 - 0.554X

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

LineupsPitchersTC
MIL0.71James Paxton
--0.29=1
Relief LAN
-1.7=-1
LAN3.56Freddy Peralta
-0.03=4
Relief MIL
-0.29=3

Team Status

TmWLBATPITCHURdPE
MIL523833.230.78.1-1.1
LAN553563.539.97.6-3.3

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

TmWLForAgainst#Bets
MIL46448.4%-19.5%90
LAN5634-3.5%-2.1%88

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games with numbers displayed. EVs greater than 108 are displayed with an O indicating lineups in and simulation complete but these games must go through another layer of scrutiny. Use your own judgement.

NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate. HA means the HAWAA simulation aborts this betting opportunity. All Dashes indicate a border line game. X means simulation not run yet for this game probably due to lineups not in.

TimeTmVegasNeutralHAPHAWAAExpected Values
18:15

details
MIL0.512OOOOOO
LAN0.528OOOOOO

Horse Race Record

TmW-LTotalHittersStartersReliefdPE
LAN2020.18.72.68.8-1.7
MIL1413.28.6-0.35.00.6

Away/Home Field Advantage

Tmtotal WAAaway/home WAA
AWAYMIL0.930.16
HOMELAN1.50.76

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