Choose a Day

ATL ARI 2024-07-10 20:40 CST

Line Score

Click on a TeamID to bring up team status, a Line Score to access box score for that team

TmLine ScoreRTBHE
ATL021 000 02051580
ARI021 000 2271990

Starters

TmWAA2YrNameIPTier
ATL0.220.15Charlie Morton (R) 91.00
ARI-2.940.00Slade Cecconi (R) 62.0-2.53

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

TmOpenCurrentLineWinRangeTC Sim
ATL0.5240.522-109920.512 - 0.5350.494
ARI0.5240.519-108930.512 - 0.5350.506

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

LineupsPitchersTC
ATL0.17Slade Cecconi
--2.53=3
Relief ARI
-0.3=0
ARI0.83Charlie Morton
-0=1
Relief ATL
-1.87=-1

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Team Status

TmWLBATPITCHURdPE
ATL5140-19.570.211.3-2.0
ARI464755.5-54.23.7-2.0

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

TmWLForAgainst#Bets
ATL5437-9.1%2.2%91
ARI4647-4.7%-3.9%93

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games with numbers displayed. EVs greater than 108 are displayed with an O indicating lineups in and simulation complete but these games must go through another layer of scrutiny. Use your own judgement.

NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate. HA means the HAWAA simulation aborts this betting opportunity. All Dashes indicate a border line game.

TimeTmVegasNeutralHAPHAWAAExpected Values
20:40

details
ATL0.5220.5270.4940.497101.294.895.4
ARI0.5190.4730.5060.50391.397.797.1

Horse Race Record

TmW-LTotalHittersStartersReliefdPE
ATL1117.5-0.810.08.20.4
ARI-19.98.8-3.95.0-1.3

Away/Home Field Advantage

Tmtotal WAAaway/home WAA
AWAYATL0.490.03
HOMEARI0-0.1

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