Choose a Day

LAN ARI 2024-08-31 19:10 CST

Line Score

Click on a TeamID to bring up team status, a Line Score to access box score for that team

TmLine ScoreRTBHE
LAN320 010 002828161
ARI401 000 10061251

Starters

TmWAA2YrNameIPTier
LAN2.400Gavin Stone (R) 135.30.83
ARI0.100Merrill Kelly (R) 40.7-0.04

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

TmOpenCurrentLineWinRangeTC Sim
LAN0.5740.574-135740.565 - 0.588X
ARI0.4670.4631161160.455 - 0.467X

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

LineupsPitchersTC
LAN3.33Merrill Kelly
--0.04=3
Relief ARI
-1.25=2
ARI1.7Gavin Stone
-0.83=1
Relief LAN
-0.76=1

Team Status

TmWLBATPITCHURdPE
LAN825482.339.41.32.2NLDS
ARI7660131.3-52.67.3-2.1WC

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

TmWLForAgainst#Bets
LAN8254-1.4%-6.2%134
ARI69675.3%-16.0%136

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games with numbers displayed. EVs greater than 108 are displayed with an O indicating lineups in and simulation complete but these games must go through another layer of scrutiny. Use your own judgement.

NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate. HA means the HAWAA simulation aborts this betting opportunity. All Dashes indicate a border line game. X means simulation not run yet for this game probably due to lineups not in.

TimeTmVegasNeutralHAPHAWAAExpected Values
19:10

details
LAN0.574OOOOOO
ARI0.463OOOOOO

Horse Race Record

TmW-LTotalHittersStartersReliefdPE
LAN2824.615.80.08.82.4
ARI1617.412.9-5.710.2-0.5

Away/Home Field Advantage

Tmtotal WAAaway/home WAA
AWAYLAN1.320.44
HOMEARI0.060

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