| Tm | Line Score | R | TB | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0 | 0 | X | 1 | 0 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | X | 0 | 0 |
| Tm | WAA | 2Yr | Name | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | -2.85 | -0.00 | Brandon Pfaadt (R) | 166.7 | -1.86 |
| MIL | 2.92 | 0 | Tobias Myers (R) | 126.0 | 0.89 |
Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet
| Tm | Open | Current | Line | Win | Range | TC Sim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0.524 | 0.558 | -126 | 79 | 0.554 - 0.565 | X |
| MIL | 0.524 | 0.483 | +107 | 107 | 0.472 - 0.488 | X |
Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.
Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.
| Lineups | Pitchers | TC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI7.8 | Tobias Myers | |||
| - | 0.89 | = | 3 | |
| Relief MIL | ||||
| - | 0.05 | = | 4 | |
| MIL0.06 | Brandon Pfaadt | |||
| - | -1.86 | = | 2 | |
| Relief ARI | ||||
| - | -1.32 | = | 1 |
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | dPE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 84 | 68 | 169.9 | -86.8 | 9.8 | -3.5 | WC |
| MIL | 88 | 64 | 65.6 | 63.1 | 6.3 | -4.3 | NLDS |
Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team
| Tm | W | L | For | Against | #Bets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 77 | 75 | 3.4% | -14.6% | 152 |
| MIL | 78 | 74 | 9.5% | -15.2% | 152 |
Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games with numbers displayed. EVs greater than 108 are displayed with an O indicating lineups in and simulation complete but these games must go through another layer of scrutiny. Use your own judgement.
NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate. HA means the HAWAA simulation aborts this betting opportunity. All Dashes indicate a border line game. X means simulation not run yet for this game probably due to lineups not in.
| Time | Tm | Vegas | Neutral | HAP | HAWAA | Expected Values | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:15 details | ARI | 0.558 | O | O | O | O | O | O |
| MIL | 0.483 | O | O | O | O | O | O | |
| Tm | W-L | Total | Hitters | Starters | Relief | dPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 24 | 20.5 | 13.7 | 1.4 | 5.4 | -3.0 |
| ARI | 16 | 21.8 | 26.5 | -2.2 | -2.5 | -1.5 |
| Tm | total WAA | away/home WAA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | ARI | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| HOME | MIL | 0.82 | 0.9 |
_