Choose a Day

ATL CIN 2024-09-19 12:10 CST

Line Score

TmLine ScoreRTBHE
ATL013 043 01315X180
CIN001 010 1003X100

Starters

TmWAA2YrNameIPTier
ATL6.960.00Chris Sale (L) 172.76.54
CIN-0.490Julian Aguiar (R) 27.7-0.18

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

TmOpenCurrentLineWinRangeTC Sim
ATL0.6670.689-222450.677 - 0.7010.663
CIN0.3770.353+1831830.339 - 0.3640.337

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

LineupsPitchersTC
ATL-0.25Julian Aguiar
--0.18=0
Relief CIN
--0.53=0
CIN-0.95Chris Sale
-6.54=-5
Relief ATL
-0.45=-1

Team Status

TmWLBATPITCHURdPE
ATL8270-42.5104.511.0-3.3
CIN7479-3.19.910.2-8.6

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

TmWLForAgainst#Bets
ATL8765-9.8%4.5%152
CIN7479-1.8%-2.3%153

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games with numbers displayed. EVs greater than 108 are displayed with an O indicating lineups in and simulation complete but these games must go through another layer of scrutiny. Use your own judgement.

NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate. HA means the HAWAA simulation aborts this betting opportunity. All Dashes indicate a border line game. X means simulation not run yet for this game probably due to lineups not in.

TimeTmVegasNeutralHAPHAWAAExpected Values
12:10

details
ATL0.6890.6910.6630.702100.296.1101.8
CIN0.3530.3090.3370.29887.495.484.3

Horse Race Record

TmW-LTotalHittersStartersReliefdPE
ATL1212.7-5.810.58.0-1.0
CIN-5-0.6-3.42.9-0.1-6.4

Away/Home Field Advantage

Tmtotal WAAaway/home WAA
AWAYATL0.230.03
HOMECIN-0.09-0.47

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