Choose a Day

ANA HOU 2024-09-22 13:10 CST

Starters

TmWAA2YrNameIPTier
ANA-3.980.00Griffin Canning (R) 162.3-2.96
HOU-1.980Spencer Arrighetti (R) 136.7-0.92

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

TmOpenCurrentLineWinRangeTC Sim
ANA0.3120.311+2222220.303 - 0.317X
HOU0.7330.730-271370.726 - 0.737X

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

LineupsPitchersTC
ANA-0.63*Spencer Arrighetti
--0.92=0
Relief HOU
-0.12=-1
HOU0.24*Griffin Canning
--2.96=3
Relief ANA
--1.04=1

Team Status

TmWLBATPITCHURdPE
ANA6293-66.7-72.1-3.2-1.2
HOU857043.733.022.4-5.8ALDS

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

TmWLForAgainst#Bets
ANA6590-10.2%2.2%155
HOU8669-5.3%-4.4%155

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games with numbers displayed. EVs greater than 108 are displayed with an O indicating lineups in and simulation complete but these games must go through another layer of scrutiny. Use your own judgement.

NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate. HA means the HAWAA simulation aborts this betting opportunity. All Dashes indicate a border line game. X means simulation not run yet for this game probably due to lineups not in.

TimeTmVegasNeutralHAPHAWAAExpected Values
13:10

details
ANA0.311XXXXXX
HOU0.730XXXXXX

Horse Race Record

TmW-LTotalHittersStartersReliefdPE
HOU1522.610.35.86.5-1.1
ANA-31-18.2-9.1-7.8-1.3-1.9

Away/Home Field Advantage

Tmtotal WAAaway/home WAA
AWAYANA-0.72-0.04
HOMEHOU0.090.36

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