Choose a Day

ARI CHN 2025-04-19 13:20 CST

Line Score

Click on a TeamID to bring up team status, a Line Score to access box score for that team

TmLine ScoreRTBHE
ARI100 000 00121040
CHN240 000 0061881

Starters

TmWAA2YrNameIPTier
ARI-0.332.83Zac Gallen (R) 21.30.95
CHN-0.470.34Ben Brown (R) 17.7-0.12

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

TmOpenCurrentLineWinRangeTC Sim
ARI0.5240.4901041040.476 - 0.535X
CHN0.5000.550-122820.512 - 0.565X

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

LineupsPitchersTC
ARI2.71Ben Brown
--0.12=3
Relief CHN
--1.38=4
CHN1.64Zac Gallen
-0.95=1
Relief ARI
--1.15=3

Team Status

TmWLBATPITCHURdPE
ARI12927.7-17.96.2-0.4
CHN14949.7-18.917.2-5.1

Vegas Status

Vegas column shows how the betting community predicted Win Percentage. Real is real Win Percentage for that team. For column % won or lost betting For that team each game. Against % betting against.

TmVegasRealForAgainst#Bets
ARI0.5340.5712.4%-11.7%21
CHN0.4870.60929.5%-37.2%21

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games with numbers displayed. EVs greater than 108 are displayed with an O indicating lineups in and simulation complete but these games must go through another layer of scrutiny. Use your own judgement.

NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate. HA means the HAWAA simulation aborts this betting opportunity. All Dashes indicate a border line game. X means simulation not run yet for this game probably due to lineups not in.

TimeTmVegasNeutralHAPHAWAAExpected Values
13:20

details
ARI0.490XXXXXX
CHN0.550XXXXXX

Away/Home Field Advantage

total WAA column shows variance in team W-L (WAA) above or below league average of WAA=0.
away/home WAA shows variance above or below league away W-L (WAA) average for away team, league home average for home team.

Tmtotal WAAaway/home WAA
AWAYARI0.562.6
HOMECHN0.56-1.28

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