Choose a Day

TBA TOR 2024-05-18 14:07 CST

Line Score

Click on a TeamID to bring up team status, a Line Score to access box score for that team

TmLine ScoreRTBHE
TBA000 003 020517121
TOR000 130 000414101

Starters

TmWAA2YrNameIPTier
TBA-0.011.33Zach Eflin (R) 53.00.13
TOR-0.762.92Kevin Gausman (R) 36.30.6

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

TmOpenCurrentLineWinRangeTC Sim
TBA0.4650.4551201200.444 - 0.4650.444
TOR0.5740.585-141710.574 - 0.6000.556

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

LineupsPitchersTC
TBA0.06Kevin Gausman
-0.6=-1
Relief TOR
-0=0
TOR0.07Zach Eflin
-0.13=0
Relief TBA
-0.65=-1

Team Status

TmWLBATPITCHURdPE
TBA2522-2.5-20.5-3.08.5
TOR1925-31.1-9.6-8.44.3

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

TmWLForAgainst#Bets
TBA2423-1.1%-1.3%47
TOR2321-17.5%12.9%44

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games and displayed. EVs greater than 108 are not displayed because they go through another layer of scrutiny. NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate.

TimeTmVegasNeutralHAPHAWAAExpected Values
14:07

details
TBA0.4550.4750.4440.445104.597.797.9
TOR0.5850.5250.5560.55589.895.194.9

Horse Race Record

TmW-LTotalHittersStartersReliefdPE
TBA3-2.4-0.7-3.01.38.5
TOR-6-6.1-6.01.2-1.44.3

Away/Home Field Advantage

Tmtotal WAAaway/home WAA
AWAYTBA0.05-0.04
HOMETOR-0.29-0.05

_

Home Baseball Handbook FooterMastodon